The federal government's top wildfire forecasters are using language they don't normally use — and that should get your attention.
The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) released its April-through-July seasonal wildfire outlook this week, and the message is stark: the West is set up for what could be one of its most dangerous fire seasons in recent memory. For Colorado, the outlook is particularly concerning — and it should be on the radar of every hiker, camper, and backcountry traveler planning trips this spring and summer.
What the Federal Outlook Says
NIFC meteorologist Jim Wallman put it bluntly in an interview with the Mountain West News Bureau: the outlook points to a potentially very long and very active fire season across the West. He noted that the agency's seasonal outlooks are normally dry, factual documents — but this one is filled with language about record-low snowpacks, record-early snowmelt, and record-high temperatures, because the conditions warranting that language are themselves unprecedented.
For April, the NIFC outlook shows above-average potential for significant wildfires across much of New Mexico and parts of Arizona, Colorado, and Wyoming. No part of the West is rated below average. By June, the maps turn a deeper shade of red: much of the Four Corners region, large portions of Utah, central and western Colorado, the Inland Northwest, and northern California are all expected to face above-normal fire potential. By July, much of the West is shaded that way.
If fires are burning intensely across many parts of the region simultaneously, Wallman warned, firefighting resources could be stretched thin — a scenario that makes every individual fire harder to contain.
Colorado's Specific Outlook
The Colorado Division of Fire Prevention and Control (DFPC) released its own spring seasonal outlook in late March, and it paints a similarly concerning picture. The state's winter was defined by record-low snowpack, unseasonably warm temperatures, and persistent wind events. Spring fire potential is rated above normal east of the Continental Divide and near normal across western Colorado — though the NIFC outlook suggests the West Slope joins the above-normal category by summer.
Tracy LeClair, a spokesperson for the DFPC's Wildland Fire Management Section, told the Denver Gazette that current conditions are worse in magnitude than those ahead of some of the state's most destructive historic fires, including the Waldo Canyon and Black Forest fires. Colorado Springs Fire Marshal Kris Cooper told the city council that conditions have the department on edge heading into summer.
And the numbers back that up. Multiple large fires have already burned across Colorado in the early months of 2026. The "24 Fire" near Colorado Springs grew to over 7,300 acres. The "County Road 169 Fire" in Elbert and Lincoln Counties burned nearly 5,600 acres. The "113 Fire" in Logan County exceeded 5,000 acres. In total, fires have already burned more than 15,000 acres in Colorado this year — more than double the average for this point in the season. Just this week, a wildfire near Berthoud in Larimer County forced mandatory evacuations near Carter Lake before crews were able to achieve full containment.
Why This Year Is Different
Several converging factors make 2026 an unusually high-risk year for wildfire across Colorado and the broader West.
Record-low snowpack. As I covered in detail last month, Colorado's statewide snowpack hit its lowest level in recorded history this spring. As of April 9, statewide snow water equivalent stood at just 22% of the historic median, according to the NRCS. The snowpack peaked in late February to mid-March — weeks ahead of the typical early-April peak — and then collapsed during a record-breaking heat wave in late March. Ninety-five percent of the state's SNOTEL monitoring stations are reporting values at or near the lowest levels ever recorded.
Early snowmelt. That premature peak means moisture that would normally be slowly released into the landscape through spring and early summer is already gone. Several river basins in the Four Corners region have already completely melted out — a situation the NIFC outlook described as exceptional. Less moisture in the soil means drier fuels earlier, which means fires can ignite and spread more easily, earlier in the year.
Record-high March temperatures. State climatologist Russ Schumacher documented that large portions of Colorado experienced seven consecutive days of record March temperatures — highs that exceeded anything previously recorded in March over a 75-year observation period. Burlington, near the Kansas border, hit 99°F on March 25. That kind of heat didn't just slow snow accumulation — it actively destroyed what little snowpack remained.
Drought expansion. More than 56% of the U.S. is now in drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Colorado has seen drought develop and intensify over the past several months, with conditions particularly acute along the Upper Colorado River Basin.
Reduced prescribed burning. The DFPC noted that low snowpack has limited the state's ability to conduct prescribed burns this winter and spring — burns that serve as one of the most effective tools for reducing the fuel loads that feed catastrophic wildfires. That means there is more unmanaged fuel on the landscape heading into fire season than there otherwise would be.
The Bigger Picture: A Season Already Underway
In many ways, fire season isn't approaching — it's already here. Nationally, more than 1.6 million acres have already burned in 2026, well above the 10-year average. The most dramatic example: the Morrill Fire in western Nebraska, which ignited on March 12 and burned more than 642,000 acres — nearly the size of Rhode Island — within a week, making it the largest wildfire in Nebraska history. Combined with several other fires in the state, the outbreak consumed over 824,000 acres of ranchland, destroyed homes and fences, killed livestock, and caused at least one fatality.
Crystal Raymond, deputy director of the Western Fire and Forest Resilience Collaborative, told reporters that 2026 is an important year to get prepared. And researcher Jared Balik of Western Colorado University warned that the trend toward lower, faster-melting snowpacks is making it more urgent to take action — through fuel reduction and prescribed burning — to precondition landscapes for the fires that are coming.
The annual average number of wildfires in Colorado has increased sharply over recent decades, from roughly 13 per year in the 1990s to more than 70 by the 2020s, according to analysis of NIFC data. Some scientists say there is no longer a wildfire "season" — it's becoming a year-round phenomenon.
Resource Concerns Add Uncertainty
Adding another layer of uncertainty: questions about firefighting capacity. Mass layoffs and voluntary resignation programs have reshaped federal land management agencies, including the U.S. Forest Service, which owns roughly one-fifth of Colorado's land. The Forest Service shed thousands of employees in early 2026, and fire chiefs in Colorado have raised concerns about what that means for summer readiness.
Brad White, fire chief of Grand Fire Protection District No. 1, told reporters he's worried there won't be a lot of extra help available this summer. Vail Fire Chief Mark Novak said he's noticed a significant loss in Forest Service capability and is already anticipating a slowdown in the agency's ability to do work on the land.
Colorado State Forester Matt McCombs said the Colorado State Forest Service receives more than a third of its annual budget from federal grants that have been proposed for elimination. Losing those funds would be equivalent to losing more than 25 full-time employees — staff who work with communities on wildfire protection plans, fire-risk assessments, and preparedness outreach.
What This Means for Hikers and Outdoor Recreationists
If you're planning to hike, camp, or spend time in Colorado's backcountry this spring and summer, wildfire awareness needs to be part of your trip planning — not an afterthought. Here's what I'd recommend:
Check fire restrictions before every trip. Fire restrictions can change rapidly and vary by jurisdiction. Check the status for your specific area before you leave. The Colorado Trail Explorer (COTREX) app now includes hourly wildfire alerts that can help you stay informed on the trail.
Rethink campfires this year. In a drought year like this, a single careless campfire could trigger a catastrophe. If fire restrictions allow campfires in your area, follow Leave No Trace campfire practices rigorously — use established fire rings, keep fires small, burn all wood to ash, and make sure your fire is dead out before leaving. Better yet, bring a backpacking stove and skip the fire entirely. It's one of the simplest ways to reduce your risk footprint in a year like this.
Have an evacuation mindset. If you see or smell smoke, take it seriously. Know your exits. Wildfires can move incredibly fast — the Morrill Fire in Nebraska traveled more than 65 miles in roughly six hours. Don't assume a fire is far away because you can only see haze.
Carry the 10 essentials — including navigation tools, extra water, and emergency shelter — on every trip. In a fire scenario, you may need to navigate by alternate routes, and water sources may be unreliable in a drought year.
Report fires immediately. If you see an unattended campfire or spot a new fire, call 911. Early reporting is one of the most effective ways to keep small fires from becoming large ones.
Stay informed. Bookmark your local ranger district's fire information page. Follow Colorado DFPC and your county sheriff on social media for real-time alerts. And keep an eye on air quality — wildfire smoke can affect your health even when the fire itself is miles away.
The Monsoon Is the Wild Card
The one potential source of relief: Colorado's summer monsoon, which typically brings afternoon thunderstorms to the mountains from mid-July through August. A strong monsoon could temper fire conditions, begin to recharge soil moisture, and provide some reprieve for an exhausted landscape. But monsoonal moisture is notoriously unpredictable, and the NIFC outlook notes that seasonal Climate Prediction Center models favor above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation for much of the West. The transition from La Niña toward neutral ENSO conditions — with potential El Niño development this summer — adds uncertainty to the precipitation forecast.
In the meantime, the message from every expert and agency is consistent: this is a year to take fire prevention seriously, to be prepared, and to make conservative decisions in the backcountry. The margin for error is smaller for everyone in 2026.
Sources: National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) April–July 2026 Seasonal Outlook; Colorado Division of Fire Prevention and Control (DFPC) Spring 2026 Seasonal Outlook; Mountain West News Bureau / Aspen Public Radio; Denver Gazette; NRCS Colorado Snow Survey; Colorado Climate Center; Summit Daily News; Rocky Mountain PBS.
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