COLORADO — March 28, 2026
Colorado’s snowpack has never been this bad.
Statewide snowpack currently sits at 29% of the 1991–2020 median, with 71 of the state’s 92 active SNOTEL stations reporting their lowest values on record. That number was 62% at the start of March. Then a record-breaking heat wave hit, and the already-thin snowpack collapsed. Snow water equivalent dropped from 8.4 inches to 5.9 inches in under a week — and many locations have likely already seen their peak snowpack, weeks ahead of the normal early-April peak.
The ripple effects will shape Colorado’s outdoor recreation, water supply, and wildfire risk for the rest of 2026.
How It Got This Bad
October and November temperatures were the second warmest on record dating back to 1895, and much of the winter’s precipitation fell as rain rather than snow. December was warm. January brought little improvement. By the end of February, statewide snowpack was at about 62% of normal, and state climatologist Russ Schumacher said low streamflow was essentially locked in for spring and summer.
Then March made things dramatically worse. A heat wave brought temperatures more typical of June, with 2026 now responsible for the top three or more highest March temperatures in many areas. That heat did not just slow accumulation — it actively destroyed what little snowpack remained. The snowpack peak came around March 8–10 at about half of the average — and it has been declining steeply ever since.
Every major river basin is far below normal. The Arkansas Basin is at 23% of its snowpack norm. The San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan Basin is at 21%. Denver Water reports that snowpack in both the Colorado River and South Platte basins within its collection areas ranks as the worst on record.
Water Restrictions and Drought Response
Denver Water has declared a Stage 1 drought seeking a 20% reduction in water use. Aurora Water is asking city council to approve a Stage 1 water shortage response, and multiple other Front Range providers are preparing similar measures.
Governor Polis activated the Colorado Drought Task Force on March 17 — the first activation since 2020 , the year of the Cameron Peak and East Troublesome fires. Polis stated that Colorado is experiencing the warmest year so far in its 131-year record, and one of the driest. If conditions worsen, the state may advance to Phase 3 of its drought response, which includes an official drought declaration.
Wildfire Risk Is Already Elevated
Fire restrictions are already in effect from Fort Collins to Estes Valley, with fires near Livermore, Wellington, and along Highway 287. Red Flag Warnings are being issued across the state for gusty winds and low relative humidity. A growing pine beetle outbreak across the Front Range is compounding the problem, increasing fuel loads in the foothills of Boulder, Larimer, Jefferson, and El Paso counties.
Hikers and campers should expect fire bans to be more widespread and arrive earlier than in a typical year.
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What This Means for Hikers and the Outdoor Recreation Community
Early access does not mean safe access. Lower snowpack means trails will clear sooner, but early-season conditions can be deceptive — patchy snowfields on north-facing slopes, postholing in shaded gullies, and icy ridgelines at dawn. If you are planning an early-season 14er, verify current conditions and carry traction.
Fire restrictions should be on every trip plan. Check for bans before every trip, not just once at the start of the season. Carry a stove. Be meticulous about Leave No Trace fire practices. This is a year where a single careless campfire could trigger a catastrophe.
Water sources may be less reliable. Springs and seasonal streams that are typically reliable through August may dry up earlier. Carry extra water capacity and do not count on resupply points that worked in previous years.
The monsoon is the wild card. Colorado’s summer monsoon is the primary mechanism that could reduce fire risk and begin recharging soil moisture. If it is active, conditions could stabilize. If it is weak, the drought and fire situation will intensify through summer. Current seasonal models suggest a potentially active monsoon, but that remains uncertain.
Expect higher trail use, earlier. Ski towns are already seeing spring break bookings decline as resorts close early SummitDaily, shifting tourism toward hiking and warm-weather activities sooner — potentially increasing trail traffic at a time when conditions are still transitional.
The Bottom Line
As one Colorado meteorologist put it, this is a scenario nobody has seen before in the state — and nobody really knows what it looks like two or three months from now. Water officials have noted that a single dry year is manageable, but consecutive dry years are Colorado’s real vulnerability — and this drought follows a 2025 water year that was itself below average.
The snowpack will not improve from here. What happens next depends on the monsoon, on fire behavior, and on the choices millions of recreationists make over the next six months. Check conditions before every trip. Follow fire restrictions without exception. Carry extra water. And understand that in a drought year, the margin for error is smaller for everyone.
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