DENVER, CO — Colorado’s crucial snowpack — often referred to as the state’s natural water reservoir — has dropped to a concerning 5th percentile, signaling serious drought risks and a heightened threat of wildfire across the state in the coming months.
According to a new report by CBS Colorado, the statewide snowpack currently sits at just 58% of the historical average for late April. Typically, Colorado’s snowpack reaches its seasonal peak during this month. This year, it peaked early on April 7 at 89%, before rapidly declining due to warmer and drier conditions.
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A Winter Dominated by La Niña — With Unexpected Impacts
While a La Niña pattern influenced weather across Colorado this winter, it didn’t behave exactly as expected. Historically, La Niña tends to bring near-average snow to northern Colorado and drier conditions to the south. This year, northern mountain ranges finished slightly below average, but southern Colorado experienced significantly lower snowfall than usual.
This imbalance in snow accumulation matters greatly. Snowpack serves as a slow-release reservoir, feeding rivers, replenishing reservoirs, and supporting ecosystems throughout the spring and summer. Without it, water shortages and increased fire risks become much more likely — particularly across the southern part of the state.
Drought Already Creeping Into Southern Colorado
Further compounding concerns, rainfall from January to March 2025 was the 20th driest on record, according to NOAA data. While two major storms helped keep northern Colorado relatively drought-free, these systems missed southern Colorado and the southwestern corner entirely.
The short-term forecast offers a brief reprieve. A wetter pattern over the next 14 days may improve conditions temporarily, reducing immediate drought concerns and providing a small buffer as fire season approaches. However, experts warn this is likely just a temporary fix.
Looking further ahead, the broader trend remains worrying. Dry conditions are expected to return by late spring and persist into mid-summer, setting the stage for a challenging wildfire season and potential water restrictions across southern Colorado and the Eastern Plains.
The Monsoon Season: A Key Unknown
One major wildcard remains: the summer monsoon. A strong monsoon could bring badly needed rain to southern Colorado, mitigating the developing drought. However, it’s still too early to predict the strength and timing of this year’s monsoon season, leaving many questions unanswered for now.
In the meantime, outdoor enthusiasts, land managers, and communities across Colorado are urged to prepare for a dry, fire-prone summer. Practicing responsible recreation, staying informed about fire restrictions, and supporting local conservation efforts will be crucial steps in protecting Colorado’s treasured outdoor spaces during this challenging season.
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