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A Process for Balancing Risk in the Mountains

Hazards are inevitable when hiking or climbing in the mountains. Whether it’s storms, steep terrain, or loose rock, the backcountry is full of potential sources of harm. Some people head to the mountains seeking that exposure, and the adrenaline that comes with flirting with danger. But for most of us, the goal isn’t to chase hazards — it’s to recognize them, manage our risk, and return home safely.

When it comes to judgment, humans aren’t great at estimating risk. We fall into psychological traps and biases that cloud our decision-making. That’s why it helps to use a simple system. Here’s a process you can use to identify mountain hazards, reduce the risks they create, and decide if an objective is worth it.

Step 1: Identify and Keep a List of Major Hazards

On a clear summer day with the right preparation, your risk of injury is relatively low. Problems arise when unexpected hazards appear — and when climbers fail to respond appropriately.

That’s why I start preparing one or two days before a trip by writing down the major hazards I might encounter. Think broadly across different categories:

Weather Hazards

Mountain weather is one of the most unpredictable hazards you’ll face. A sunny morning can turn into a lightning storm by noon. Look at the forecast not only for your climbing day but also for the days before and after. A storm within 48 hours of your trip should be a red flag — it increases the chance of dangerous conditions, delayed travel, or even being forced to spend extra time in the backcountry.

In winter, snowfall is a critical hazard. Fresh snow raises avalanche danger and makes travel slower and more exhausting. Even if avalanches aren’t a concern, snowed-in roads, icy trails, or deep drifts can raise your risk of exhaustion or disorientation.

Navigation Hazards

Getting off-route is another common hazard. Whiteout conditions, complex terrain, or simple nightfall can all raise the risk of becoming lost. Even strong navigators can be thrown off by weather or fatigue. Identify what conditions might challenge your route-finding ability before you head out.

Other Hazards

Some hazards don’t fit neatly into a single category. Poor rock quality, especially in ranges like the Elks, is a hazard you can’t remove — only acknowledge and plan around.

Accessibility also matters: a remote peak means a slower response if something goes wrong, which raises the consequences of an accident.

Step 2: Mitigate Hazards to Reduce Risk

Once you’ve identified the main hazards, the next step is mitigation — taking action to reduce the likelihood or severity of harm. You can’t eliminate every hazard, but you can usually reduce the risk they pose.

For example: imagine a storm is forecast for the evening after your climb. You could mitigate that hazard by leaving earlier, camping at the trailhead the night before, or bringing a reliable partner. These steps don’t remove the hazard (the storm is still coming), but they reduce the risk it poses to you.

Gear is one of the most practical tools for mitigation. Traction devices can reduce the risk of slipping on icy trails. Avalanche gear — beacon, probe, and shovel — can reduce the consequences if you’re caught in a slide. A map, compass, and GPS reduce the risk of becoming lost in bad conditions.

In short: think of mitigation as building buffers between yourself and the hazard.

Step 3: Question the Risks You Cannot Mitigate

Some hazards can’t be effectively mitigated. Rotten rock on Capitol Peak isn’t going away. A remote location will always mean slower rescue response. Once you’ve done everything you can to mitigate hazards, pause to evaluate what risks remain.

Ask yourself honestly: Is this climb worth it, given the risks?

This is where judgment and self-awareness matter most. Our brains are full of biases — like confirmation bias, which makes us ignore evidence that contradicts our plans. When conditions deteriorate, it’s easy to rationalize pushing onward. That’s why it’s essential to stop, assess, and consciously decide whether the unmitigated risk is acceptable.

Sometimes, the right choice is turning back. The mountains will always be there.

Identify Hazards → Mitigate Hazards → Question Remaining Risks

That’s my simple three-step process for staying safe in the mountains. By identifying hazards early, taking steps to reduce the risks they create, and honestly evaluating what risks remain, you give yourself the best chance of making it home.

The summit will wait. Your life won’t.

Alex Derr, Founder of The Next Summit

Alex Derr is an Eagle Scout, climber, and environmental policy expert located in Denver, Colorado. He created The Next Summit to help others stay safe exploring the mountains and advocate to preserve the peaks for the future. Follow him on Linkedin or Twitter or click here to contact him.

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